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NEW The Competitive Coastal Housing Insurance Market Nudges Climate Change Adaptation Forward READ HERE

While behavioral economists dismiss "rational expectations, there are some important economic actors with a strong incentive to discover accurate assessments of the probabilities of future events.  The insurance industry is investing in forecasting because it has the right incentives to do so.   As Grossman and Stiglitz and Hayek taught us long ago, risk prices convey information about our best guess of future probabilities of events. Read the first paragraph of this paper.

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