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NEW Climate Change and the Food Supply READ HERE

The NY Times has a lead article saying that the IPCC says that climate change will reduce the food supply during a time of global population and income growth and this will lead to higher prices for food and hence increased starvation risk for the world's very poor.

Suppose that everything the IPCC says will happen will indeed happen (and the reported price effect actually looks quite small but let's pretend that the reporter got the magnitude of the effect wrong).  What happens next?  To predict true doom and gloom, you need to believe the following;

1.  Under new climate conditions, farming cannot be productive in current cold places such as Russia and Canada that will now have warmer winters.  Instead, farming remains where it currently is and just dries up in the heat and drought.
2.  Human ingenuity and new GMO entrepreneurs will not figure out ways to increase agricultural yields.
3.  People's tastes for foods are such that we are unable or unwilling to substitute to varieties that can be grown under new climate conditions.
4. The world's very poor do not enjoy the growth miracle that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in China and in many parts of Africa so that they do not have the income to buy foods at higher prices.
5. The world's engineers do not figure out ways to recycle water and to enhance our stocks of key agricultural inputs.
6.  Global population growth continues to rise sharply.
7.  Consumers in the rich nations (who are increasingly obese) do not respond to price incentives by reducing their consumption and allowing others in the rest of the world to eat these calories.
8.  Shifting global demographics such as the aging of the world's population doesn't reduce the average number of calories that  a person eats each year.

50 years from now readers of this blog will see me write a post on November 2nd 2063 highlighting that each of these 8 claims is proven to be false.

Since the IPCC is dominated by non-economists, basic economic ideas such investment under uncertainty and rational expectations do not enter the predictive models these scientists supply.  Implicit in IPCC research is a mass behavioral economics vision of myopia.  In the real world, self interested people form their best guesses of the future and reports such as the NY Times article today help to guarantee that their pessimistic predictions never occur.  As I explain in Climatopolis and repeat in points #2 and #5 above, expectations of future scarcity create necessary conditions for entrepreneurs to smell big profits and this is the start of averting doom.

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