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NEW The New York Post Endorses Emily Oster's New Book READ HERE

The Wall Street Journal's Review section ran an excerpt of Emily Oster's new book and today the NY Post endorses it.   From these pieces, I see that Emily will challenge the standard rules of thumb that benevolent paternalist doctors confront pregnant women with.   When she was a pregnant Chicago economist, she sought to be "free to choose" concerning her coffee and alcohol consumption.  While the doctors said; "no, no , no", her read of the "correlations literature" suggested that the marginal benefits of an extra cup of this and that were likely to exceed the long run marginal costs.  

This book will be a big hit for several reasons. First, it will liberate the pregnant ladies in New Jersey and Long Island and other suburbs to feel no guilt as they seek more pleasure during their pregnancies.   Second, it will lead to uproar among know it all doctors.  Such doctors forget that while they focus on maximizing the health outcomes for patients, the patient cares about the lifetime stream of "utility".  Health and "utility" are not the same thing.  The doctors will reply that they are thinking about the needs of the unborn child than the expecting mom.  Could this be right?  For this claim to be right, you must be a strict adherent of behavioral economics.  The exciting part about Emily's book will be that this specific issue raises key points of debate between neo-classical economists and behavioral economists. Issues of hyperbolic discounting will arise.

I'm excited about this debate because the same issues arise in my work on climate change adaptation.  Do people form rational expectations of the future and know what they don't know?  Or, do people form myopic expectations and do not anticipate that the iceberg is near?

Now a reasonable point is that the population is a mixture of two types of people and doctors are risk averse and thus lecture everyone since they can't distinguish Spock (Emily Oster) from Homer Simpson.   While I haven't read Emily's book , I guess that she will argue that the Spocks have the right to "opt out" of the Doctor's orders and to feel no guilt for doing so.

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